The VIX

The VIX is the fear in the S&P 500(Your 401K money)... With billions being injected into the market and lowing of the prime rate we don't seem to be going back to easy street!

The market is still pricing in bearish moves from this chart.

Pricing Volatility---Excellent Video From TOS

http://mediaserver.thinkorswim.com/transcripts/2008/20080312.mov

From the guys who priced options and were market makets. Who better is able to teach with inside info and experience.

If you need a player for the .MOV file See the link below.
http://www.videolan.org/mirror.html?mirror=http://mirrors.optralan.com/videolan/&file=vlc/0.8.6e/win32/vlc-0.8.6e-win32.exe

The Pros Teaching Iron Condor Trading and more..

http://www.sheridanmentoring.com/demonstrations/20071107TOSChat/

This is the way I trade and taught by the Pros.

Tonights Meeting Notes:

Thanks Matt!

We talked taxes at the beginning of the meeting and we have Terry to thank for that.

Items Covered: -We discussed a good bit about a 'Delta-Neutral' strategy (more specifically with POT as the vehicle).-

We talked about an April Iron Condor for POT 190/195/140/135 for a $1.05 credit (Or moving the top leg down to 185/190 for a $1.20 credit); Both give you about 20-23% return (22 days to expiration).-

Shorting AMZN: Directional or a Bear/Call spread at the money; (70/72.50 Bear/Call spread is a 1/1 Risk Reward)

Education Starting Points

CBOE Free Classes
http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/courses.aspx

Investools Coaching
http://www.investools.com/popups/videoPreview.swim

Option Planet/Thinkorswim classes:
http://www.optionplanet.com/assembled/list.html

Silver

Closed my Futures Silvers trade today. $1100 gain on $1250/margin with $500 risk.

Why did I take profits? The price action is stalling after a fast move (24 hours) is within rules to take profits and wait for another entry. Reward of 2 to risk of 1 was hit.

My Silver Win/Loss is 1/1 with a profit of $800 in 2 days.

Ummmm! S&P ETF Showing Signs of weakness in all this Bullish action

Check out todays close. Right at a downtrend line AND a previous low from Aug. 2007.

Buying Silver Futures... I've moved my stop to breakeven after 5 hours.

Looking Good. 50% ROE in 5 hours. 100% Return on Risk in 5 hours.

Gold, Silver, and the US Dollar

Online Meeting Tickers Notes

DD- Iron Condor

ATI - Bearish

DNR- Bullish

MA - Bullish if you can handle the swings

SKF (Inverse the XLF) - Wait for reaction of the trend line and then bullish.

RUT - April Iron Condor (Shorts 600 and 750) 25% Return

SPY - April Iron Condor (Shorts 122 and 142) 30% Return (Two point spread)

JAKK - Possible breakout

GILD - Bullish (Buying May 50 call)

SPX/SPY - Right at the downtrend line but if it does breakup it should go to the next resistance level.

What did I caution about 10 days ago... A Review.. Fighting at SPX 1270ish..

Long Term Bottom.. NOT, Short Term Bottom... Yes

Why the market isn't finding a real bottom..

The 'reversal' volume is MUCH lighter and today’s was pretty light for the move that was made. This is a short term bottom from what I see.

Jeff Kohlers Video Tonight.

Thanks to Jeff for posting this on YouTube. Excellence picks for Longs and Shorts. I share the same view.

Bear Sterns Fall Out Continues. Very Ugly for Monday

S&P Futures Tonight. Down hard!

Shadowtrader Video for March 16th 2008

http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday031608st.html

Last Weeks Shadowtrader Video- Peter Does a great job

Subprime: Comedy Nails the problem

Bear Stearns has had to be rescued from collapse by the US central bank.

US investment bank Bear Stearns has had to be rescued from collapse by the US central bank.
But how serious is this development for the future of the banking system, and what does it say about the credit crunch?
How big is Bear Stearns?
Bear Stearns is one of the major US investment banks which have dominated Wall Street for generations.
Founded in 1923, it is one of the leading global banking firms that operates at the wholesale level, dealing with governments, companies and other financial institutions.
Its core business lines include buying and selling stocks, government and corporate bonds, investment banking, global clearing services, asset management, and private client services.
Before the crisis, it had a market capitalisation of $60bn and assets under management of $350bn, and a global workforce of 15,000.
Why is the bank in trouble?
Bear Stearns has been severely affected by the loss of confidence in credit markets.
The company had invested heavily in sub-prime mortgage instruments and other securities which are now seen as highly risky, and which have fallen sharply in value.
And it had less capital than its rivals, such as Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, who were also heavily exposed, to plug the gap.
Last summer, two of Bear Stearns' hedge funds had to be bailed out, partly precipitating the first stage of the global credit crunch.
Now other banks have become unwilling to lend short-term money to Bear Stearns to keep its operations going.
And that has meant that it no longer has enough cash on hand, known as liquidity, to fund its operations.
How dangerous is the situation?
The worry is that if Bear Stearns collapsed, it would be forced to sell its assets, such as sub-prime mortgage securities, into the market at cut down prices.
This would have lowered their value even further.
And that could have affected the solvency of many other big US banks.
And if other big banks went bust, then credit would dry up rapidly across the whole economy, slowing economic activity.
That is why the New York Federal Reserve felt it had no choice but to intervene to support a short-term rescue deal.
But there may be other banks that are already at risk of reaching a similar position to Bear Stearns.
Why is the rescue being carried out by JP Morgan Chase?
For technical reasons, Bear Stearns was unable to borrow money directly from the New York Federal Reserve, because it is not a commercial bank.
So the money is coming from one of the biggest US commercial banks instead.
However, they will be able to borrow any of the funds they need for the rescue from the Fed, so their shareholders will not be exposed to any risks.
So they are essentially a conduit for the Fed bail-out.
The Fed's new $200bn emergency loan facility only comes into effect on 27 March.
Friday, 14 March 2008
Will the bank survive in its current form?
It is not clear that Bear Stearns can survive intact.
It is essentially now at the mercy of the market.
JP Morgan Chase, has only committed to provide cash for 28 days, as long as it is underwritten by the US central bank.
JP Morgan Chase is also looking at how to provide long-term financing, and there may be international investors or other banks who want to invest in the stricken bank.
But if it cannot find anyone who wants to back it, then its future may be bleak.
Bear Stearns could be broken up or taken over by JP Morgan.
Or it could sell a big equity stake to a foreign investor, such as a sovereign wealth fund.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7296827.stm

Don't Let The Market Do This To You In The Coming Days As the S&P Finds the 1270 Mark......... Be Ready!

To Be Driven Off Inspiration With Music and Words

http://www.simpletruths.com/dash/index.html

http://www.stservicemovie.com/

http://www.eagleschoolmovie.com/

http://www.powerofattitudemovie.com/

http://www.212movie.com/

I'm sure you would spend 5 minutes checking out all these links if it changed your life as was a start of mine.

Jim Rohn - A Must View

Inspirational Words by Jim Rohn with music by U2

RUT Iron Condor Triggered Today

25% Return in 44 days. Russel 2000 Index needs to say in between 750 and 580 in the next 44 days.

The Show Down VIX and the SPX (S&P 500)

You will notice the 20 year trend line on the SPX chart. 1275ish should be pretty strong support. See the two SPX charts. So what is the problem?!?!?!

The VIX The VIX is the fear in the market. Ratio of Puts and Calls being bought/sold. That is showing us we are nearing a end of a down cycle.

So why am I so harping on the VIX?!

The Ascending Triangle!

What is that? Quoting Michael Drews flash cards: "An Ascending Triangle Pattern is a continuation pattern, usually occuring after a large run up in price. After a brief consolidation in the 'Triangle' with decreasing volume, the trend will usually continue in the same direction as the previous trend.

Trading this pattern Success Rate: 68%!!!!!!!!!!!!!! See the VIX below!

U2 :Bad -- One of the best for last

U2: Pride (In The Name Of Love)

Day In The Life Of Programming

How music can make a movie, and a movie can make the music: Jackson Browne: Somebodys Babe

U2: I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For

Still get the chills listening to this U2 Song: With Or Without You...

>

1987 JFK Stadium (Philadelphia, PA) and 1992 at Sun Devil Stadium Phoenix, AZ

ShadowTrader Video Weekly

If you have every wanted to know what 'traders' are looking at on their screens Peter does a great job in very short time. Peter also goes over current price action, support and resistance, and any price patterns on the over all market. Cost: FREE. ---DARE YOU TO WATCH!

http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday030208st.html

Back In Again..

The Wait For Rentry (2 day, 5 min chart)

Current Forex Postions Opened About 20min.Ago With Their Stops

This kind of early(Sunday) price action tells me that Monday is setting up to be very bearish. Which would be about right considering we sold hard into the close of Friday.

Update: After a huge fast move I took profits and will enter again once this 5:30pm bounce is over.

RUT Followup

Looking Sweet for March and April positions.