Taking Care Of Business

Taking care of things at home. Be back in a few months.

Happy Holidays!
Dave

Slow Week

TOS made some app changes so I'm working on a way to show P/L. On a side note here is an interesting video.

Fib What... Here is the visual.

Fibs and Trends = Profits

=Music from the past! What a movie!

Forex, Fib lines and night trading

So I plan to post my results every night I night trade. Not looking for a huge home run unless it comes but base hits. So here above is tonights results. My Max risk at anytime was $50.

Fibs and Trading

I just LOVE Fibs! Even when the market is NUTS (VIX Spike over 90) we can still use fibs for support/resistance entries/exits. I shorted this a few times tonight with tight and easy stops.

Learning From Mistakes

Learning from Mistakes

We all have winners and some we don’t like to talk about but I’ve come to the painful conclusion to TRADE WITH THE TREND. Better to stay on the side on the counter trends.

Why?

1) The counter trend move is not going to be the largest of the move and will most of the time be the smallest.

2) The trending move direction will help overcome the Bid/ASK spread AND the missing the perfect top and bottom.

3) If I am not able to nail the perfect top and bottom and I have to make up that Bid/ASK spread as in number two (above) then the Risk/Reward will NEVER be worth taking the trade.

4) The ONLY exception would be a trend reversal.

Simple but basic rules ONCE APPLIED has some nice $change$ to my account.

Now What

After a nice butt kicking this week trying to go long multiple times and getting whipped around I'm saying now what? Friday looked like a nice short term reversal point. Over 1000 point range on the DOW. A drop off the cliff at the open and then a bounce, drop off again then a bounce with volume things were setting up for a reversal. Looked pretty good going into the close and tonights future opening confirmed it. We might fill the gap over night but the market is soooo over due for a few bullish days and I believe we are here. I don't believe this is over by any means. Once the bounce stalls, I'll be shorting this market with just about everything I have.

Forex Markets

Seems I was right and wrong about being bullish on Friday. The Bill passed the house and then the market dropped. I have a few long positions and while hedging the downside overnight I started to swing trade as profits were coming pretty quick.. Turned out to be a pretty good night swing trading. My max loss was at any time was $180 and I did get to $-140 early on in the trade when the pair was slowly coasting up while being overbought(I was shorting). So here is the result of tonight’s trades.

Dave Turns Bullish With Stops At Todays Low

The SPY is showing we are at support looking on 20 day 30 min chart. I'm long AUD/USD which tracks the market well on the up side. Shorting EUR/JPY works well shorting the market.We shall see, but my stops are at the low of the day.

Dave

Place Your Bets!

This reminds me of when I lived in New Jersey when I was younger. We use to place bets on horses. Win, Show and Place if I remember. This whole bail out seems just like that. I’m in cash going into the weekend. A coin toss doesn’t cut my trading rules. Trading with an edge does.

40 minutes left. Place your bets if you so desire!

Have a great weekend!

Dave

Market Forecast

My Magic 8 Ball is saying we are going to start to sell off this large 2 day run up. 1) We are at resistance, 2) Intraday chart shows no follow thru, 3) Volume was less on Friday than Thursday. 4) News has been priced in IMO. 5) This bail out is just an outline as the deal is not done yet. 6) Since this will drag on into next week I would expect some very wild swings. The SPY/SPX hit a 50% retracement on the weekly chart and closed at the 61.8% retracement (Bullish).

Into The Groove

Powerful Music


A short clip showing the emotions of the audience.

Music From the Past! U2: 40

I have always loved this song from U2 ever since seeing them in concert on Sept. 1987 at JFK stadium in Philadelphia. U2 Played this song close to the end of the concert, the crowd sang "How Long To Sing This Song" for about 10 minutes until the band came back out for another 20 awesome minutes. Truly one of the best and most memorial moments in my life. I don't know the exact number of people that night that attended that concert, I would guess 80K to 100K, but it was truly amazing having that many people singing the same song.

What a way to chill after a wild week in the market.

Red Monday as LEH Goes DOWN!

Trading the Forex this evening. Current open plays within the last few hours.

Long EUR, Short USD-Stopped out.

Initial Stop at 142.00

SPY 40% Return in 42 Days. Iron Condor. Filled

Call me Crazy but I'm putting my money on it.

RUT 2000 Umm! 750 Stopped Again!

Nice 10% 24 hour profit taken today.

Bears Are Back 1260 Gone! Nice 38% Gain on my TXT Puts

Oh! Non-market related

One of the things I need to do this weekend. The bulb in my LCD screen for my laptop went out..

Time to bring out the tech in me!
http://www.laptoprepair101.com/laptop/2007/12/09/replace-laptop-backlight-ccfl-lamp/

Stops

I might pick a direction on a stock like ILMN or oil, gold etc. Well what if I am wrong.. Happens! My entries are based on 'x' and 'y'. If these start to fail then I am out and then wait for another setup. I have taken a loss larger than I care to have again. On the flips side I have taken a gain as well,, so if the reasons I took a trade are no longer there, then I exit, loss or profit I am out.

My entry on ILMN is based on the channel and price support and over sold MACD. If we see a breakdown of Fridays price action then I will exit. NOW,, I might still hold if the overall market pulls back hard with a jump of the price of oil. To a point.. A very short point.. I also have a bullish spread on oil and bearish on an index so a pullback with an increase of oil would be just fine with me.

Chart attached.

Busy

I have been out of town a lot and busy with wife, kids and work, computer hardrive and LCD monitor failures......
I always check in on the market and swing in and out of small positions. USO being one. TWM being another. I have pulled off my RUT 640/650s for a profit. The 750/760s have been a pain this month. Got a little to greedy but I have been close to my shorts before and understand that time is on my side here.
Since we are in an election year I would not be suprised to see leaders of all the parties helping out and trying to keep oil prices down with this huge hurricane coming.

Market In A Channel.. Looks bearish for Thursday, Turned out to be Friday. News Trumps All.

Busy with life and sweating the RUT 750s...

5 weeks straight up and a nice topping tail last week. More to come this weekend.

Oh! Long CHK with a close stop.

Looking Forward with OIL (USO)

BUY BUY BUY if you ask me. Stop at $95.00 (Trade at own risk)

Looking Forward with Gold and Silver

BUY BUY BUY if you ask me! With a stop at $156 (Trade at own risk).

Looking Forward with the NDX

On the daily we are over sold and building a base or is that resistance? Use the fibs we lost the 31% fib mark and are trying to get back to it. We did hit the 23% mark and usually if we bounce off the 31% mark we are going back to 0%.

On the weekly chart we are still in an uptrend with intermediate over sold conditions. MACD is mixed which I would see a neutral.

Looking Forward with the Russell 2000

Just like the SPX we are over sold on the weekly and over bought on the daily. Notice the MACD on the weekly(In the upper reversal zone).. The RUT is also at the top of the downtrend channel. I see us heading down with a stop of 730 if I am wrong.

Looking Forward with the S&P500

Weekly chart shows over sold. Daily chart shows over bought. Bollinger Bands are squeezing the price. We should see a big move. Which way I’m not sure. We could move to the top of the channel to 1325... That I can see and the same for the short term berish side since we are over bought.

Showing The Actual Damage To The Banks

This Ticker came from Tim Knight's Blog.. Years of gains. Gone in no time!